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简述政策分析的过程。

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2021-12-28 07:01
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作为一种创造和应用知识的过程,政策分析包含定义、预测、规定、描述、评估五个程序。
(1)定义。这个步骤也就是问题构建的过程,政策分析者和决策者通过对支撑问题定义的基本假设质疑,获得了有关政策问题的相关信息,有助于发现隐含的假设、判断问题成因、勾画可能的目标、综合冲突的观点,以及设计新的选择方案。
(2)预测。预测可以提供有关事件未来状态的相关知识,也就是采纳的可选方案未来可能发生的结果。预测还可以检验那些看似合理的可评估的前景,指明在实现目标的过程中,未来可能出现的限制因素,并评估不同方案的可行性。
(3)规定。规定也就是建议,它将对结果的收益和成本进行分析,从而产生与政策相关的知识。规定(建议)有助于评估风险和不确定性的程度,明确外部性和溢出量,形成选择的标准并指明政策执行的责任。
(4)描述。描述也就是监控,它提供了对先前采纳的政策的执行结果进行监督和控制,从而产生有关的政策知识,并在政策执行阶段提供帮助。它有助于考察政策的接受和顺从程度,发现项目所没有考虑到的结果,识别政策执行的障碍和限制,确定政策偏离的责任归属等。
(5)评估。它提供了关于有关解决或缓解问题的实际结果的信息,冒在设法发现预想和实际情况之间的差异,由此提供相关的知识,从而在评估阶段提供帮助。


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