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什么是政策分析?政策分析的必要性何在?

问答题
2022-05-23 00:54
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正确答案
政策分析是政策科学的研究方法,它使用各种分析方法和技术来帮助决策者制定政策。政策分析的目的在于寻求既出色又节省地完成任务的方法。
奎德认为,政策分析的必要性可以从决策失误以及决策机构的低效得到说明。在他看来,决策失误有两种形式:一种是可以避免的决策失误,即决策所必须的信息、资料、证据完全具备,但由于缺乏科学的决策方法和程序造成的决策失误,这种决策失误虽说不是政策分析的责任,但缺乏政策分析是一个重要原因;决策失误的另一种形式是难以避免的决策失误,这种决策失误是由于决策所必须的信息、资料、证据不充分或者有关事件的未来发展尚未充分展现或者决策所涉及的问题复杂并带有大量不确定性因素而导致的,奎德认为这种决策失误虽然难以完全避免,但运用政策分析可以把损失控制到最小程度,事实上,在所有决策过程中,政策分析都能帮助决策者作出更好的选择。
另一方面,奎德认为,几乎在所有国家的政府部门中都常常表现出决策上的低效。在他看来,造成这种现状的原因是多方面的,首先,政府部门中参与决策的决策者或潜在的决策者人数多,他们又各自代表不同利益集团,这时就很难就目标达成共识;其次,政府机构使用的决策程序和方法十分落后,官样文章,公文旅行,议而不决等是这种决策程序的一般特征,而引起巨大社会危害的“试错法”是最常见的决策方法,这样,频繁的决策失误及其带来的严重后果便可想而知;最后,政府工作人员的不称职也是政府决策失误的一个重要原因,许多政府工作人员几乎没有任何政策科学的知识,几乎没有受过任何政策分析方面的训练,而且在有些政府机构中几乎没有任何专职政策分析员。上述原因归结到一点就是缺乏政策分析,也就是说我们没有充分和恰当地运用政策分析方法去发现我们的目标,去理解并解决我们的问题。从理论上说,政策分析可以在一切决策领域为我们提供帮助。

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